Matchup analysis
Our model projects Rams 22, Chiefs 19 at SoFi Stadium in Week 13. That is a lean: Rams win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.8 points and 40.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Chiefs are 5-1, scoring 23.8 and allowing 17.2 points per game (+6.6 per game). The Rams are 3-4, scoring 24.3 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+1.6 per game).
Expect Chiefs to find it hard going: Rams' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) outranks Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense). Chiefs' elite defense (3rd) should limit Rams' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chiefs by 14 and Rams by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Rams get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Rams by about 0.2. The game is on Prime Video.
More: Chiefs schedule · Rams schedule · all Week 13 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.