Matchup analysis
Our model projects Patriots 22, Bills 19 at Gillette Stadium in Week 13. That is a lean: Patriots win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.8 points and 41.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Bills are 5-1, scoring 32.8 and allowing 28.5 points per game (+4.3 per game). The Patriots are 4-3, scoring 22.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+2.5 per game).
Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Patriots' strong defense (5th); that mismatch is where most of Bills' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Patriots' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) against Bills' below-average defense (24th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bills by 14 and Patriots by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Patriots get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Patriots by about 0.2. The game is on CBS.
More: Bills schedule · Patriots schedule · all Week 13 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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