Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bengals 21, Chiefs 19 at Paycor Stadium in Week 14. That is a lean: Bengals win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.7 points and 40.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Chiefs are 5-1, scoring 23.8 and allowing 17.2 points per game (+6.6 per game). The Bengals are 4-2, scoring 27.2 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+6.9 per game).
Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense) meets Bengals' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Chiefs puts up. Bengals' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) meets Chiefs' elite defense (3rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Bengals puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chiefs by 14 and Bengals by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Bengals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bengals by about 0.1. The game is on Fox.
More: Chiefs schedule · Bengals schedule · all Week 14 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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