Matchup analysis
Our model projects Packers 21, Bills 20 at Lambeau Field in Week 14. That is a genuine toss-up: Packers win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.8 points and 40.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bills are 5-1, scoring 32.8 and allowing 28.5 points per game (+4.3 per game). The Packers are 4-3, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.7 points per game (-0.1 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) against Packers' strong defense (7th). Packers' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bills' below-average defense (24th); that mismatch is where most of Packers' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bills by 15 and Packers by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Packers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Bills would be favoured by 0.8. The game is on NBC.
More: Bills schedule · Packers schedule · all Week 14 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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