Matchup analysis
Our model projects Steelers 23, Ravens 18 at Acrisure Stadium in Week 15. That is a lean: Steelers win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.3 points and 40.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Ravens are 4-3, scoring 24.1 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+0.2 per game). The Steelers are 5-2, scoring 21.9 and allowing 19.7 points per game (+2.2 per game).
Ravens' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) meets Steelers' strong defense (8th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ravens puts up. Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) should limit Steelers' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 22.1 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ravens by 12 and Steelers by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Steelers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Steelers by about 2.7. The game is on CBS.
More: Ravens schedule · Steelers schedule · all Week 15 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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