Matchup analysis
Our model projects Colts 23, Titans 22 at Nissan Stadium in Week 15. That is a genuine toss-up: Colts win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.6 points and 44.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Colts are 2-5, scoring 22 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-3.7 per game). The Titans are 1-6, scoring 15.4 and allowing 22.3 points per game (-6.9 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) against Titans' below-average defense (25th). Colts' struggling defense (28th) should limit Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colts by 18 and Titans by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Titans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Colts are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Colts schedule · Titans schedule · all Week 15 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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