Matchup analysis
Our model projects Packers 22, Dolphins 16 at Lambeau Field in Week 15. That is a lean: Packers win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.5 points and 37.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Dolphins are 1-5, scoring 16.3 and allowing 26.2 points per game (-9.9 per game). The Packers are 4-3, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.7 points per game (-0.1 per game).
Expect Dolphins to find it hard going: Packers' strong defense (7th) outranks Dolphins' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 20.2 points against an average defense). Packers' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) meets Dolphins' below-average defense (22nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Packers puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dolphins by 11 and Packers by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Packers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Packers by about 2.9. The game is on Fox.
More: Dolphins schedule · Packers schedule · all Week 15 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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