Matchup analysis
Our model projects Buccaneers 23, Saints 18 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 15. That is a lean: Buccaneers win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.5 points and 41.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Saints are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-4.6 per game). The Buccaneers are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+1.5 per game).
Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th) should limit Saints' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) against Saints' below-average defense (23rd).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Saints by 11 and Buccaneers by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Buccaneers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Buccaneers by about 2.9. The game is on Fox.
More: Saints schedule · Buccaneers schedule · all Week 15 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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