Matchup analysis
Our model projects Cardinals 24, Jets 22 at State Farm Stadium in Week 15. That is a genuine toss-up: Cardinals win about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.3 points and 45.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Jets are 2-5, scoring 19.6 and allowing 21.4 points per game (-1.8 per game). The Cardinals are 2-5, scoring 20.3 and allowing 29.7 points per game (-9.4 per game).
Jets' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense) meets Cardinals' struggling defense (32nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Jets puts up. Cardinals' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense) meets Jets' below-average defense (21st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Cardinals puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jets by 16 and Cardinals by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Cardinals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Jets would be favoured by 1.3. The game is on Fox.
More: Jets schedule · Cardinals schedule · all Week 15 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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