Matchup analysis
Our model projects Rams 26, Cowboys 22 at SoFi Stadium in Week 15. That is a lean: Rams win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.9 points and 47.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Cowboys are 3-4, scoring 27 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+1.3 per game). The Rams are 3-4, scoring 24.3 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+1.6 per game).
Cowboys' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Rams' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th); that mismatch is where most of Cowboys' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Rams' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense) against Cowboys' struggling defense (31st).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cowboys by 13 and Rams by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Rams get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Rams by about 1.3. The game is on CBS.
More: Cowboys schedule · Rams schedule · all Week 15 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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