Matchup analysis
Our model projects Broncos 23, Raiders 20 at Allegiant Stadium in Week 15. That is a lean: Broncos win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.7 points and 43.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Broncos are 5-2, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.1 points per game (+0.5 per game). The Raiders are 3-4, scoring 26.1 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-2 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense) against Raiders' struggling defense (30th). Broncos' strong defense (4th) should limit Raiders' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 22 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Broncos by 21 and Raiders by 13 about 80% of the time.
The Raiders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Broncos are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Broncos schedule · Raiders schedule · all Week 15 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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