Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texans 20, Eagles 18 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 16. That is a genuine toss-up: Texans win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 37.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Texans are 2-5, scoring 23.6 and allowing 24.3 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Eagles are 2-5, scoring 18.1 and allowing 25 points per game (-6.9 per game).
Texans' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense) meets Eagles' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Texans puts up. Texans' strong defense (9th) should limit Eagles' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texans by 19 and Eagles by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Eagles get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Texans are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Prime Video.
More: Texans schedule · Eagles schedule · all Week 16 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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