NFL Week 16 Predictions & Projected Scores (2026)

Updated Oct 29, 2026

Week 16 of the 2026 NFL season has 16 games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Patriots at Jets (0.2-point margin), the highest projected total is Cardinals at Saints (47 points) and the lowest is Chargers at Dolphins (37.1). 9 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

Power rankings · Playoff predictions · How accurate are we?

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every game

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Thu, Dec 24, 8:15 PM ESTPrime Video
Texans20
Eagles18
We project Texans 20-18, a 1.6-point margin with 37.8 total points; Texans win 55% of the time.
Our number
HOU by 1.6
Total 37.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — HOU by 1.6 · Total 37.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Texans 55% · total 37.8Full preview →
Fri, Dec 25, 1:00 PM ESTNetflix
Packers17
Bears22
We project Bears 22-17, a 5.8-point margin with 39 total points; Bears win 68% of the time.
Our number
CHI by 5.8
Total 39
Book line
Not posted
Our number — CHI by 5.8 · Total 39 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bears 68% · total 39Full preview →
Fri, Dec 25, 4:30 PM ESTNetflix
Bills19
Broncos23
We project Broncos 23-19, a 4.5-point margin with 41.9 total points; Broncos win 64% of the time.
Our number
DEN by 4.5
Total 41.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — DEN by 4.5 · Total 41.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Broncos 64% · total 41.9Full preview →
Fri, Dec 25, 8:15 PM ESTFox
Rams16
Seahawks23
We project Seahawks 23-16, a 7-point margin with 38.3 total points; Seahawks win 71% of the time.
Our number
SEA by 7
Total 38.3
Book line
Not posted
Our number — SEA by 7 · Total 38.3 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Seahawks 71% · total 38.3Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27 · TBD
Buccaneers20
Falcons20
We project Falcons 20-20, a 0.7-point margin with 39.7 total points; Falcons win 52% of the time.
Our number
ATL by 0.7
Total 39.7
Book line
Not posted
Our number — ATL by 0.7 · Total 39.7 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Falcons 52% · total 39.7Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27 · TBD
Bengals22
Colts24
We project Colts 24-22, a 1.6-point margin with 45.8 total points; Colts win 55% of the time.
Our number
IND by 1.6
Total 45.8
Book line
Not posted
Our number — IND by 1.6 · Total 45.8 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Colts 55% · total 45.8Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27 · TBD
Commanders15
Vikings25
We project Vikings 25-15, a 10-point margin with 39.1 total points; Vikings win 78% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
MIN by 10
Total 39.1
Book line
Not posted
Our number — MIN by 10 · Total 39.1 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Vikings 78% · total 39.1Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27 · TBD
Panthers19
Steelers24
We project Steelers 24-19, a 5.1-point margin with 43.7 total points; Steelers win 66% of the time.
Our number
PIT by 5.1
Total 43.7
Book line
Not posted
Our number — PIT by 5.1 · Total 43.7 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Steelers 66% · total 43.7Full preview →

Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ESTFox
Chargers20
Dolphins18
We project Chargers 20-18, a 2.2-point margin with 37.1 total points; Chargers win 57% of the time.
Our number
LAC by 2.2
Total 37.1
Book line
Not posted
Our number — LAC by 2.2 · Total 37.1 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Chargers 57% · total 37.1Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ESTFox
Cardinals22
Saints25
We project Saints 25-22, a 3.2-point margin with 47 total points; Saints win 60% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
NO by 3.2
Total 47.1
Book line
Not posted
Our number — NO by 3.2 · Total 47.1 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Saints 60% · total 47Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Patriots20
Jets20
We project Patriots 20-20, a 0.2-point margin with 39.1 total points; Patriots win 51% of the time.
Our number
Even
Total 39.1
Book line
Not posted
Our number — Even · Total 39.1 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Patriots 51% · total 39.1Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Browns19
Ravens20
We project Ravens 20-19, a 1.6-point margin with 38.8 total points; Ravens win 55% of the time.
Our number
BAL by 1.6
Total 38.7
Book line
Not posted
Our number — BAL by 1.6 · Total 38.7 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ravens 55% · total 38.8Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27, 4:05 PM ESTFox
Titans22
Raiders23
We project Raiders 23-22, a 1-point margin with 45.4 total points; Raiders win 53% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
LV by 1
Total 45.4
Book line
Not posted
Our number — LV by 1 · Total 45.4 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Raiders 53% · total 45.4Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27, 4:25 PM ESTCBS
49ers19
Chiefs19
We project Chiefs 19-19, a 0.3-point margin with 38.3 total points; Chiefs win 51% of the time.
Our number
Even
Total 38.3
Book line
Not posted
Our number — Even · Total 38.3 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Chiefs 51% · total 38.3Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27, 8:20 PM ESTNBC
Jaguars25
Cowboys21
We project Jaguars 25-21, a 4-point margin with 46.6 total points; Jaguars win 63% of the time.
Our number
JAX by 4
Total 46.6
Book line
Not posted
Our number — JAX by 4 · Total 46.6 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jaguars 63% · total 46.6Full preview →
Mon, Dec 28, 8:15 PM ESTESPN
Giants22
Lions24
We project Lions 24-22, a 2.2-point margin with 46.4 total points; Lions win 57% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
DET by 2.2
Total 46.4
Book line
Not posted
Our number — DET by 2.2 · Total 46.4 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Lions 57% · total 46.4Full preview →

How these numbers are made

Each team gets offense and defense ratings in points and in expected points added per play, adjusted for opponent strength and started from last season's ratings regressed toward average. Quarterback changes, home field and travel, rest and weather are added with weights fitted on past seasons, and the margin becomes a calibrated win probability. The book line under each game (DraftKings when available, otherwise the consensus or the first book, each named with its source) is neutral market data shown for comparison. See methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.

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