Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ravens 20, Browns 19 at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 16. That is a genuine toss-up: Ravens win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 38.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Browns are 5-2, scoring 19 and allowing 20.9 points per game (-1.9 per game). The Ravens are 4-3, scoring 24.1 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+0.2 per game).
Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) should limit Browns' struggling offense (31st of 32, worth about 19.2 points against an average defense). Ravens' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) meets Browns' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ravens puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Browns by 15 and Ravens by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Ravens get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Browns would be favoured by 1. The game is on CBS.
More: Browns schedule · Ravens schedule · all Week 16 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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