Matchup analysis
Our model projects Falcons 20, Buccaneers 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 16. That is a genuine toss-up: Falcons win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.7 points and 39.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Buccaneers are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+1.5 per game). The Falcons are 3-4, scoring 24.4 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-0.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) against Falcons' below-average defense (20th). Falcons' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense) meets Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Falcons puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buccaneers by 16 and Falcons by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Falcons get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Buccaneers would be favoured by 1.9.
More: Buccaneers schedule · Falcons schedule · all Week 16 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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