Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 25, Commanders 15 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 16. That is a solid edge: Vikings win about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10 points and 39.1 combined points.
The Commanders are 1-4-1, scoring 22 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-6.7 per game). The Vikings are 6-0, scoring 20.8 and allowing 12.3 points per game (+8.5 per game).
Vikings' elite defense (1st) should limit Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense). Vikings' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense) meets Commanders' struggling defense (29th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Vikings puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Commanders by 7 and Vikings by 27 about 80% of the time.
The Vikings get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vikings by about 7.4.
More: Commanders schedule · Vikings schedule · all Week 16 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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