Matchup analysis
Our model projects Chargers 20, Dolphins 18 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 16. That is a genuine toss-up: Chargers win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.2 points and 37.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Chargers are 0-6, scoring 15 and allowing 25.2 points per game (-10.2 per game). The Dolphins are 1-5, scoring 16.3 and allowing 26.2 points per game (-9.9 per game).
Dolphins' below-average defense (22nd) should limit Chargers' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.6 points against an average defense). Expect Dolphins to find it hard going: Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) outranks Dolphins' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 20.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chargers by 19 and Dolphins by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Dolphins get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Chargers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
More: Chargers schedule · Dolphins schedule · all Week 16 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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