Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bears 22, Packers 17 at Soldier Field in Week 16. That is a lean: Bears win about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.8 points and 39 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Packers are 4-3, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.7 points per game (-0.1 per game). The Bears are 5-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+5.3 per game).
Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th) should limit Packers' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense). Bears' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense) meets Packers' strong defense (7th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Bears puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Packers by 11 and Bears by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Bears get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bears by about 3.2. The game is on Netflix.
More: Packers schedule · Bears schedule · all Week 16 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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