Matchup analysis
Our model projects Patriots 20, Jets 20 at MetLife Stadium in Week 16. That is a genuine toss-up: Patriots win about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.2 points and 39.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Patriots are 4-3, scoring 22.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+2.5 per game). The Jets are 2-5, scoring 19.6 and allowing 21.4 points per game (-1.8 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Patriots' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) against Jets' below-average defense (21st). Patriots' strong defense (5th) should limit Jets' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Patriots by 17 and Jets by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Jets get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Patriots are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Patriots schedule · Jets schedule · all Week 16 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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