NFL Week 17 Predictions & Projected Scores (2026)

Updated Oct 29, 2026

Week 17 of the 2026 NFL season has 16 games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Texans at Packers (0.5-point margin), the highest projected total is Giants at Cowboys (48.1 points) and the lowest is Vikings at Jets (35.4). 8 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

Power rankings · Playoff predictions · How accurate are we?

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every game

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Thu, Dec 31, 8:15 PM ESTPrime Video
Ravens19
Bengals24
We project Bengals 24-19, a 4.8-point margin with 42.4 total points; Bengals win 65% of the time.
Our number
CIN by 4.8
Total 42.5
Book line
Not posted
Our number — CIN by 4.8 · Total 42.5 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bengals 65% · total 42.4Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3 · TBD
Broncos19
Patriots18
We project Broncos 19-18, a 0.9-point margin with 37.3 total points; Broncos win 53% of the time.
Our number
DEN by 0.9
Total 37.3
Book line
Not posted
Our number — DEN by 0.9 · Total 37.3 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Broncos 53% · total 37.3Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3 · TBD
Chiefs19
Chargers18
We project Chiefs 19-18, a 0.6-point margin with 37.4 total points; Chiefs win 52% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
KC by 0.6
Total 37.4
Book line
Not posted
Our number — KC by 0.6 · Total 37.4 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Chiefs 52% · total 37.4Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3 · TBD
Rams20
Buccaneers20
We project Buccaneers 20-20, a 0.8-point margin with 39.8 total points; Buccaneers win 53% of the time.
Our number
TB by 0.8
Total 39.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — TB by 0.8 · Total 39.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Buccaneers 53% · total 39.8Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3 · TBD
Commanders16
Jaguars26
We project Jaguars 26-16, a 9.6-point margin with 41.9 total points; Jaguars win 77% of the time.
Our number
JAX by 9.6
Total 41.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — JAX by 9.6 · Total 41.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jaguars 77% · total 41.9Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ESTFox
Saints19
Falcons23
We project Falcons 23-19, a 3.8-point margin with 42.6 total points; Falcons win 62% of the time.
Our number
ATL by 3.8
Total 42.6
Book line
Not posted
Our number — ATL by 3.8 · Total 42.6 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Falcons 62% · total 42.6Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ESTFox
Colts20
Browns22
We project Browns 22-20, a 1.7-point margin with 42.1 total points; Browns win 56% of the time.
Our number
CLE by 1.7
Total 42.1
Book line
Not posted
Our number — CLE by 1.7 · Total 42.1 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Browns 56% · total 42.1Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ESTFox
Giants24
Cowboys25
We project Cowboys 25-24, a 0.9-point margin with 48.1 total points; Cowboys win 53% of the time.
Our number
DAL by 0.9
Total 48.1
Book line
Not posted
Our number — DAL by 0.9 · Total 48.1 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Cowboys 53% · total 48.1Full preview →

Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Steelers22
Titans20
We project Steelers 22-20, a 2.2-point margin with 41.4 total points; Steelers win 57% of the time.
Our number
PIT by 2.2
Total 41.4
Book line
Not posted
Our number — PIT by 2.2 · Total 41.4 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Steelers 57% · total 41.4Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Bills23
Dolphins20
We project Bills 23-20, a 2.8-point margin with 43 total points; Bills win 59% of the time.
Our number
BUF by 2.8
Total 42.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — BUF by 2.8 · Total 42.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bills 59% · total 43Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Vikings20
Jets15
We project Vikings 20-15, a 4.8-point margin with 35.4 total points; Vikings win 65% of the time.
Our number
MIN by 4.8
Total 35.4
Book line
Not posted
Our number — MIN by 4.8 · Total 35.4 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Vikings 65% · total 35.4Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ESTFox
Seahawks24
Panthers18
We project Seahawks 24-18, a 6.2-point margin with 41.2 total points; Seahawks win 69% of the time.
Our number
SEA by 6.2
Total 41.2
Book line
Not posted
Our number — SEA by 6.2 · Total 41.2 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Seahawks 69% · total 41.2Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 4:05 PM ESTCBS
Raiders22
Cardinals25
We project Cardinals 25-22, a 2.2-point margin with 46.9 total points; Cardinals win 57% of the time.
Our number
ARI by 2.2
Total 46.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — ARI by 2.2 · Total 46.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Cardinals 57% · total 46.9Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 4:25 PM ESTFox
Lions19
Bears25
We project Bears 25-19, a 6.4-point margin with 44.1 total points; Bears win 69% of the time.
Our number
CHI by 6.4
Total 44.1
Book line
Not posted
Our number — CHI by 6.4 · Total 44.1 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bears 69% · total 44.1Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 8:20 PM ESTNBC
Eagles18
49ers21
We project 49ers 21-18, a 3.4-point margin with 38.8 total points; 49ers win 61% of the time.
Our number
SF by 3.4
Total 38.8
Book line
Not posted
Our number — SF by 3.4 · Total 38.8 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
49ers 61% · total 38.8Full preview →
Mon, Jan 4, 8:15 PM ESTESPN
Texans19
Packers18
We project Texans 19-18, a 0.5-point margin with 37.2 total points; Texans win 52% of the time.
Our number
HOU by 0.5
Total 37.2
Book line
Not posted
Our number — HOU by 0.5 · Total 37.2 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Texans 52% · total 37.2Full preview →

How these numbers are made

Each team gets offense and defense ratings in points and in expected points added per play, adjusted for opponent strength and started from last season's ratings regressed toward average. Quarterback changes, home field and travel, rest and weather are added with weights fitted on past seasons, and the margin becomes a calibrated win probability. The book line under each game (DraftKings when available, otherwise the consensus or the first book, each named with its source) is neutral market data shown for comparison. See methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.

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