Matchup analysis
Our model projects Broncos 19, Patriots 18 at Gillette Stadium in Week 17. That is a genuine toss-up: Broncos win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.9 points and 37.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Broncos are 5-2, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.1 points per game (+0.5 per game). The Patriots are 4-3, scoring 22.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+2.5 per game).
Expect Broncos to find it hard going: Patriots' strong defense (5th) outranks Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense). Broncos' strong defense (4th) should limit Patriots' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Broncos by 18 and Patriots by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Patriots get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Broncos are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
More: Broncos schedule · Patriots schedule · all Week 17 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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