Matchup analysis
Our model projects 49ers 21, Eagles 18 at Levi's Stadium in Week 17. That is a lean: 49ers win about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.4 points and 38.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Eagles are 2-5, scoring 18.1 and allowing 25 points per game (-6.9 per game). The 49ers are 6-1, scoring 28.1 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+8.2 per game).
49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) should limit Eagles' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: 49ers' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) against Eagles' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eagles by 14 and 49ers by 20 about 80% of the time.
The 49ers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour 49ers by about 0.8. The game is on NBC.
More: Eagles schedule · 49ers schedule · all Week 17 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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