Matchup analysis
Our model projects Falcons 23, Saints 19 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 17. That is a lean: Falcons win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.8 points and 42.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Saints are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-4.6 per game). The Falcons are 3-4, scoring 24.4 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-0.3 per game).
Expect Saints to find it hard going: Falcons' below-average defense (20th) outranks Saints' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). Falcons' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Saints' below-average defense (23rd); that mismatch is where most of Falcons' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Saints by 13 and Falcons by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Falcons get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Falcons by about 1.2. The game is on Fox.
More: Saints schedule · Falcons schedule · all Week 17 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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