Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texans 19, Packers 18 at Lambeau Field in Week 17. That is a genuine toss-up: Texans win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 37.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Texans are 2-5, scoring 23.6 and allowing 24.3 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Packers are 4-3, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.7 points per game (-0.1 per game).
Expect Texans to find it hard going: Packers' strong defense (7th) outranks Texans' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense). Texans' strong defense (9th) should limit Packers' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texans by 17 and Packers by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Packers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Texans are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
More: Texans schedule · Packers schedule · all Week 17 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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