Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bears 25, Lions 19 at Soldier Field in Week 17. That is a solid edge: Bears win about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.4 points and 44.1 combined points.
The Lions are 4-2, scoring 30.7 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+3.2 per game). The Bears are 5-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+5.3 per game).
Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th); that mismatch is where most of Lions' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Bears' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense) against Lions' below-average defense (26th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lions by 11 and Bears by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Bears get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bears by about 3.8. The game is on Fox.
More: Lions schedule · Bears schedule · all Week 17 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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