Matchup analysis
Our model projects Browns 22, Colts 20 at Huntington Bank Field in Week 17. That is a genuine toss-up: Browns win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.7 points and 42.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Colts are 2-5, scoring 22 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-3.7 per game). The Browns are 5-2, scoring 19 and allowing 20.9 points per game (-1.9 per game).
Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) meets Browns' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Colts puts up. Browns' struggling offense (31st of 32, worth about 19.2 points against an average defense) meets Colts' struggling defense (28th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Browns puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colts by 15 and Browns by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Browns get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Colts would be favoured by 0.9. The game is on Fox.
More: Colts schedule · Browns schedule · all Week 17 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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