Matchup analysis
Our model projects Cardinals 25, Raiders 22 at State Farm Stadium in Week 17. That is a genuine toss-up: Cardinals win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.2 points and 46.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Raiders are 3-4, scoring 26.1 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-2 per game). The Cardinals are 2-5, scoring 20.3 and allowing 29.7 points per game (-9.4 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Raiders' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 22 points against an average defense) against Cardinals' struggling defense (32nd). Cardinals' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Raiders' struggling defense (30th); that mismatch is where most of Cardinals' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Raiders by 15 and Cardinals by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Cardinals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Raiders would be favoured by 0.4. The game is on CBS.
More: Raiders schedule · Cardinals schedule · all Week 17 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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