Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bengals 24, Ravens 19 at Paycor Stadium in Week 17. That is a lean: Bengals win about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.8 points and 42.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Ravens are 4-3, scoring 24.1 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+0.2 per game). The Bengals are 4-2, scoring 27.2 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+6.9 per game).
Ravens' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bengals' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th); that mismatch is where most of Ravens' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Bengals' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) against Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ravens by 12 and Bengals by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Bengals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bengals by about 2.2. The game is on Prime Video.
More: Ravens schedule · Bengals schedule · all Week 17 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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