Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 20, Jets 15 at MetLife Stadium in Week 17. That is a lean: Vikings win about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.8 points and 35.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Vikings are 6-0, scoring 20.8 and allowing 12.3 points per game (+8.5 per game). The Jets are 2-5, scoring 19.6 and allowing 21.4 points per game (-1.8 per game).
Jets' below-average defense (21st) should limit Vikings' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense). Expect Jets to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks Jets' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Vikings by 22 and Jets by 12 about 80% of the time.
The Jets get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Vikings are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Vikings schedule · Jets schedule · all Week 17 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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