Matchup analysis
Our model projects Buccaneers 20, Rams 20 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 17. That is a genuine toss-up: Buccaneers win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.8 points and 39.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Rams are 3-4, scoring 24.3 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+1.6 per game). The Buccaneers are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+1.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Rams' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense) against Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th). Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) meets Rams' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Buccaneers puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rams by 16 and Buccaneers by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Buccaneers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Rams would be favoured by 1.8.
More: Rams schedule · Buccaneers schedule · all Week 17 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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