Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bills 23, Dolphins 20 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 17. That is a lean: Bills win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.8 points and 43 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Bills are 5-1, scoring 32.8 and allowing 28.5 points per game (+4.3 per game). The Dolphins are 1-5, scoring 16.3 and allowing 26.2 points per game (-9.9 per game).
Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Dolphins' below-average defense (22nd); that mismatch is where most of Bills' projected points come from. Expect Dolphins to find it hard going: Bills' below-average defense (24th) outranks Dolphins' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 20.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bills by 20 and Dolphins by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Dolphins get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bills are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Bills schedule · Dolphins schedule · all Week 17 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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