Matchup analysis
Our model projects Steelers 22, Titans 20 at Nissan Stadium in Week 17. That is a genuine toss-up: Steelers win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.2 points and 41.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Steelers are 5-2, scoring 21.9 and allowing 19.7 points per game (+2.2 per game). The Titans are 1-6, scoring 15.4 and allowing 22.3 points per game (-6.9 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Steelers' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 22.1 points against an average defense) against Titans' below-average defense (25th). Steelers' strong defense (8th) should limit Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Steelers by 19 and Titans by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Titans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Steelers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Steelers schedule · Titans schedule · all Week 17 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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