Matchup analysis
Our model projects Lions 24, Giants 22 at Ford Field in Week 16. That is a genuine toss-up: Lions win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.2 points and 46.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Giants are 4-2-1, scoring 23.3 and allowing 23 points per game (+0.3 per game). The Lions are 4-2, scoring 30.7 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+3.2 per game).
Giants' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense) meets Lions' below-average defense (26th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Giants puts up. Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th); that mismatch is where most of Lions' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Giants by 15 and Lions by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Lions get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Giants would be favoured by 0.4. The game is on ESPN.
More: Giants schedule · Lions schedule · all Week 16 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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