Matchup analysis
Our model projects Broncos 23, Bills 19 at Empower Field at Mile High in Week 16. That is a lean: Broncos win about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.5 points and 41.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Bills are 5-1, scoring 32.8 and allowing 28.5 points per game (+4.3 per game). The Broncos are 5-2, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.1 points per game (+0.5 per game).
Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) meets Broncos' strong defense (4th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Bills puts up. Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bills' below-average defense (24th); that mismatch is where most of Broncos' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bills by 12 and Broncos by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Broncos get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Broncos by about 1.9. The game is on Netflix.
More: Bills schedule · Broncos schedule · all Week 16 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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