Matchup analysis
Our model projects Chiefs 19, 49ers 19 at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 16. That is a genuine toss-up: Chiefs win about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.3 points and 38.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The 49ers are 6-1, scoring 28.1 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+8.2 per game). The Chiefs are 5-1, scoring 23.8 and allowing 17.2 points per game (+6.6 per game).
49ers' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) meets Chiefs' elite defense (3rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points 49ers puts up. 49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) should limit Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between 49ers by 17 and Chiefs by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Chiefs get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field 49ers would be favoured by 2.3. The game is on CBS.
More: 49ers schedule · Chiefs schedule · all Week 16 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.