Matchup analysis
Our model projects Raiders 23, Titans 22 at Allegiant Stadium in Week 16. That is a genuine toss-up: Raiders win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 45.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Titans are 1-6, scoring 15.4 and allowing 22.3 points per game (-6.9 per game). The Raiders are 3-4, scoring 26.1 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-2 per game).
Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.2 points against an average defense) meets Raiders' struggling defense (30th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Titans puts up. Raiders' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 22 points against an average defense) meets Titans' below-average defense (25th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Raiders puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Titans by 16 and Raiders by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Raiders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Titans would be favoured by 1.6. The game is on Fox.
More: Titans schedule · Raiders schedule · all Week 16 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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