Matchup analysis
Our model projects Colts 24, Bengals 22 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 16. That is a genuine toss-up: Colts win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 45.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bengals are 4-2, scoring 27.2 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+6.9 per game). The Colts are 2-5, scoring 22 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-3.7 per game).
Bengals' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colts' struggling defense (28th); that mismatch is where most of Bengals' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) against Bengals' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bengals by 15 and Colts by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Colts get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Bengals would be favoured by 1.
More: Bengals schedule · Colts schedule · all Week 16 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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