Matchup analysis
Our model projects Panthers 23, Falcons 21 at Bank of America Stadium in Week 18. That is a genuine toss-up: Panthers win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.1 points and 43.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Falcons are 3-4, scoring 24.4 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-0.3 per game). The Panthers are 3-3, scoring 26.5 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-1.2 per game).
Falcons' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Panthers' below-average defense (27th); that mismatch is where most of Falcons' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Panthers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) against Falcons' below-average defense (20th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Falcons by 15 and Panthers by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Panthers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Falcons would be favoured by 0.5.
More: Falcons schedule · Panthers schedule · all Week 18 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.