Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 21, Bears 17 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 18. That is a lean: Vikings win about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.8 points and 38 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Bears are 5-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+5.3 per game). The Vikings are 6-0, scoring 20.8 and allowing 12.3 points per game (+8.5 per game).
Expect Bears to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks Bears' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense). Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th) should limit Vikings' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bears by 12 and Vikings by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Vikings get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vikings by about 2.2.
More: Bears schedule · Vikings schedule · all Week 18 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.