Matchup analysis
Our model projects Packers 22, Lions 19 at Lambeau Field in Week 18. That is a genuine toss-up: Packers win about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.5 points and 40.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Lions are 4-2, scoring 30.7 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+3.2 per game). The Packers are 4-3, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.7 points per game (-0.1 per game).
Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Packers' strong defense (7th); that mismatch is where most of Lions' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Packers' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) against Lions' below-average defense (26th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lions by 14 and Packers by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Packers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Lions would be favoured by 0.1.
More: Lions schedule · Packers schedule · all Week 18 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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