Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jaguars 22, Colts 21 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 18. That is a genuine toss-up: Jaguars win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.5 points and 43.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Jaguars are 4-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 17.3 points per game (+8.4 per game). The Colts are 2-5, scoring 22 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-3.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) against Colts' struggling defense (28th). Jaguars' strong defense (6th) should limit Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jaguars by 18 and Colts by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Colts get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Jaguars are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
More: Jaguars schedule · Colts schedule · all Week 18 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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