Matchup analysis
Our model projects Broncos 21, Chargers 15 at Empower Field at Mile High in Week 18. That is a solid edge: Broncos win about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.7 points and 36.1 combined points.
The Chargers are 0-6, scoring 15 and allowing 25.2 points per game (-10.2 per game). The Broncos are 5-2, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.1 points per game (+0.5 per game).
Expect Chargers to find it hard going: Broncos' strong defense (4th) outranks Chargers' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.6 points against an average defense). Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense) meets Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Broncos puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chargers by 10 and Broncos by 24 about 80% of the time.
The Broncos get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Broncos by about 4.1.
More: Chargers schedule · Broncos schedule · all Week 18 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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