Matchup analysis
Our model projects Patriots 23, Dolphins 16 at Gillette Stadium in Week 18. That is a solid edge: Patriots win about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.1 points and 38.3 combined points.
The Dolphins are 1-5, scoring 16.3 and allowing 26.2 points per game (-9.9 per game). The Patriots are 4-3, scoring 22.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+2.5 per game).
Expect Dolphins to find it hard going: Patriots' strong defense (5th) outranks Dolphins' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 20.2 points against an average defense). Patriots' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Dolphins' below-average defense (22nd); that mismatch is where most of Patriots' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dolphins by 10 and Patriots by 24 about 80% of the time.
The Patriots get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Patriots by about 4.5.
More: Dolphins schedule · Patriots schedule · all Week 18 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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