Matchup analysis
Our model projects Giants 22, Eagles 18 at MetLife Stadium in Week 18. That is a lean: Giants win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.7 points and 39.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Eagles are 2-5, scoring 18.1 and allowing 25 points per game (-6.9 per game). The Giants are 4-2-1, scoring 23.3 and allowing 23 points per game (+0.3 per game).
Expect Eagles to find it hard going: Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th) outranks Eagles' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense). Eagles' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th) should limit Giants' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eagles by 13 and Giants by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Giants get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Giants by about 1.1.
More: Eagles schedule · Giants schedule · all Week 18 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.