Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ravens 20, Steelers 20 at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 18. That is a genuine toss-up: Ravens win about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0 points and 40.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Steelers are 5-2, scoring 21.9 and allowing 19.7 points per game (+2.2 per game). The Ravens are 4-3, scoring 24.1 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+0.2 per game).
Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) should limit Steelers' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 22.1 points against an average defense). Ravens' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) meets Steelers' strong defense (8th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ravens puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Steelers by 17 and Ravens by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Ravens get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Steelers would be favoured by 2.6.
More: Steelers schedule · Ravens schedule · all Week 18 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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