Matchup analysis
Our model projects Buccaneers 22, Saints 21 at Caesars Superdome in Week 18. That is a genuine toss-up: Buccaneers win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.9 points and 43.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Buccaneers are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+1.5 per game). The Saints are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-4.6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) against Saints' below-average defense (23rd). Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th) should limit Saints' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buccaneers by 18 and Saints by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Saints get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Buccaneers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
More: Buccaneers schedule · Saints schedule · all Week 18 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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