Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Chiefs 27, Colts 20 at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Chiefs win about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.5 points and 47.3 combined points.
The Colts are 2-5, scoring 22 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-3.7 per game). The Chiefs are 5-1, scoring 23.8 and allowing 17.2 points per game (+6.6 per game).
Expect Colts to find it hard going: Chiefs' elite defense (3rd) outranks Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense). Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colts' struggling defense (28th); that mismatch is where most of Chiefs' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colts by 10 and Chiefs by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Chiefs get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Chiefs by about 3.9. The game is on NBC.
Result: Colts 30, Chiefs 33. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.5 points and the total by 15.7.
More: Colts schedule · Chiefs schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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