Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bills 30, Raiders 25 at Allegiant Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Bills win about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.8 points and 54.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Bills are 5-1, scoring 32.8 and allowing 28.5 points per game (+4.3 per game). The Raiders are 3-4, scoring 26.1 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-2 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) against Raiders' struggling defense (30th). Raiders' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 22 points against an average defense) meets Bills' below-average defense (24th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Raiders puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bills by 22 and Raiders by 12 about 80% of the time.
The Raiders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bills are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: Bills 33, Raiders 30. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.8 points and the total by 8.6.
More: Bills schedule · Raiders schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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