Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Chiefs 26, Chargers 17 at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Chiefs win about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.2 points and 42.2 combined points.
The Chargers are 0-6, scoring 15 and allowing 25.2 points per game (-10.2 per game). The Chiefs are 5-1, scoring 23.8 and allowing 17.2 points per game (+6.6 per game).
Chiefs' elite defense (3rd) should limit Chargers' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.6 points against an average defense). Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense) meets Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Chiefs puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chargers by 8 and Chiefs by 26 about 80% of the time.
The Chiefs get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Chiefs by about 6.6. The game is on CBS.
Result: Chargers 6, Chiefs 22. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.8 points and the total by 14.2.
More: Chargers schedule · Chiefs schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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