Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jets 22, Bills 22 at MetLife Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Jets win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.8 points and 43.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bills are 5-1, scoring 32.8 and allowing 28.5 points per game (+4.3 per game). The Jets are 2-5, scoring 19.6 and allowing 21.4 points per game (-1.8 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) against Jets' below-average defense (21st). Bills' below-average defense (24th) should limit Jets' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bills by 16 and Jets by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Jets get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Bills would be favoured by 1.8. The game is on CBS.
More: Bills schedule · Jets schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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